Two-Year School Enrollment: 2020 Data & What to Expect in 2021

Naturally, we’ve been particularly interested in seeing how colleges and universities have fared this year. And it was a surprise to see that student enrollment was down for two-year schools. Many of us expected to see an increase this year, as a weaker economy generally translates to greater enrollment in two-year schools. The timing and impact of the pandemic led us to expect that many students who had planned to attend four-year institutions would reconsider and enroll in community and junior colleges instead, as proximity to the family home and the prospect of significant cost savings in a turbulent economic climate could make local schools a smarter investment. But that’s not what happened.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reports that of all higher education institutions, community colleges endured the largest decline in undergrad enrollment in 2020, at 10.1% - a nearly ninefold increase of the losses experienced in fall of 2019. Of all measures of post-secondary and master’s students at two-year, four-year, non-profit, and for-profit schools, the steepest decline in enrollment was among freshmen at two-year schools at 18.9%, almost 19 times the pre-pandemic loss rate. Demographically, the biggest losses were among Native American, Hispanic, and Black students, and the decline in male enrollment was almost three times as high as the decline in female enrollment.

In our view, these figures reflect the unevenness of the pandemic’s impact on employment across America. Low-income families, whose members are most likely to pursue an affordable education at a two-year school as a path out of poverty, also experienced the most job loss this year. For this population, even a small reduction in income can make the difference between attending school and postponing for another year or two. Affluent families with breadwinners who can easily work from home may have actually saved money this year, as entertainment spending declined but salaries remained largely the same. These families had no economic reason to reconsider their educational plans.

Change is on the horizon, and we’re optimistic about what it means for two-year schools. The incoming Biden/Harris administration has demonstrated an interest in managing the pandemic more seriously than the current administration, which could accelerate a return to safe gatherings that stimulate spending. Plans to vaccinate the general public for COVID-19 in 2021 also suggest the potential for a return to life that’s more like what we experienced pre-pandemic. If previously lost jobs come back, or if the Biden administration provides stronger economic support to working families, new income could result in a return to educational pursuits that had been put on hold. And there’s reason to believe that more students will choose two-year schools over four-year schools: our incoming First Lady, Dr. Jill Biden, is a major advocate for community colleges. The cost of four-year tuition continues to rise. And we expect an increased demand for workers with associate’s degrees, particularly in health care, coupled with a smaller pool of graduates. These factors are likely to drive renewed interest in two-year degrees amongst potential students of all ages.

One way you can prepare for what 2021 will bring is to partner with AwardSpring. When enrollment is down, you’ll appreciate the time and cost savings that AwardSpring gives you, so you can redirect funds and energy to your highest priority goals. Plus, our easy-to-use universal application helps you capture those students who would have left a paper application unfinished; two-year schools typically see a 50% increase in applications with our platform. When enrollment is high, our solution maximizes your award distribution, helping you make the case for more funds from your donors and driving more growth over time. Learn more about how AwardSpring can help your institution manage its scholarship program.